Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
